TL; DR
- DRAM and NAND prices rose 85% in Q1 2026, with another 30% rise expected by Q4.
- Memory makes up ~27% of a foldable’s bill of materials, exposing it more than regular phones.
- Samsung is absorbing costs for now, but analysts don’t expect steep festive discounts this year.
If you’ve been sitting on the edge about buying a Samsung foldable, analysts tracking India’s smartphone supply chain have a clear message: you might not be able to get it at the launch price forever.
Why Memory Chips Are The Real Story Here
According to Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak, DRAM and NAND prices surged 85% in Q1 2026 alone, driven by the AI industry’s voracious demand for memory and increasingly proprietary chip designs straining global supply.
Pathak expects another 30% increase between Q2 and Q4 2026, with no signs of relief over the next two years. That matters, specifically for foldables; memory reportedly accounts for around 27% of a foldable’s total bill of materials, far higher than on a conventional phone, making devices like the Galaxy Z Fold 8 series unusually exposed to this cost spiral.
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What This Means For Prices
| Analyst | Key Warning |
| Tarun Pathak, Counterpoint Research | DRAM/NAND up 85% in Q1 2026; another 30% rise expected through Q4 |
| Abhilash Kumar, Smart Analytics Global | India smartphone shipments likely to decline in Q3/Q4 2026 |
| Abhilash Kumar | Festive season discounts unlikely to match previous years’ depth |
| Prabhu Ram, CMR | Premium segment still growing, but higher configs face sustained price pressure |
| Samsung (JB Park) | Z Fold 8 series + Z Flip 8 crossed 271,000 India pre-orders in 72 hours |
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Abhilash Kumar of Smart Analytics Global expects India’s overall smartphone shipments to decline through the back half of 2026 as memory costs push new launches to higher price points, and warns that this year’s festive season is unlikely to bring the steep discounts buyers have come to expect.
Samsung itself has leaned into this moment rather than away from it. JB Park has said Samsung deliberately kept its price increases smaller than rivals and leaned on long-term zero-cost EMI to soften the impact for buyers, while privately acknowledging this has meant absorbing a significant margin hit internally.
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If you’ve already been considering a Fold 8 (review), Fold 8 Ultra (review), or Flip 8 (hands-on), the analyst consensus points in the same direction: current pricing may be the best it gets for a while, and the festive discounts you’re used to may simply not show up this year.
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